Thursday, September 16, 2004

The Beginning of The End?

Much is being made recently about the decline of Kerry in key states that usually vote blue. He is also still "struggling" in national polls. Many dems are on the ledge, but I am just sitting back and smiling! The signs are starting to point toward Kerry's strategy, and I don't think things are dark at all, I think that the Dems want everyone to think it is dark so that this strategy plays out fully. Check it:

The alleged "Bush Bounce" is starting to fade from the convention already. Many of the polls that had him up have reeled him back in. So the election is just as close as it was before, except now all the national attention and pressure is on Bush to protect his new leads.

The numbers in key blue states are tightening up. However, what gives me hope are the articles this week that say that voter registration for 18-24 year old voters is at the highest levels since they were given the right to vote. These folks are not being polled because they have not been registered before. The New Voter Project in Wisconsin alone says it has registered 79,000 people that did not vote in 2000 (but were eligible). Since 18-24 year olds break 2 to 1 for Kerry, that is a good sign in a "battleground state". Of course, making sure these folks vote is the next challenge....make it happen Spoonchamp!

Bush is going to get hung on this debate thing. Two weeks until the first debate and he still has not agreed to any of them. Bush events are all exclusive, either "by invitation" or forcing you to sign a loyalty pledge to attend. If Bush is unwilling to debate and field questions from people that don't already agree with him, he is going to look more disingenuous than he already is. He can't hide until Nov. 2 and not answer these questions.

Finally, people are starting to notice the John Edwards factor, that is noticing that he has been suspiciously quiet and tucked away. John Kerry has been known as a closer in his elections. I should know, I was lulled into what I thought was going to be an easy Dean win in Iowa and then Kerry blindsided all of us. As things stay tight, Kerry is going to unleash the strategy. He is going to put Bush on the spot in the debates, he is going to broadside these policies, and he is going to unleash John Edwards like a heavy calvary charge on the weak side of the Bush campaign. We have been counting the days, and the time is almost here. Seeing Edwards will be fresh because he has not been on the news every night, and Kerry will hone his message. Bill Clinton will rise from the couch and will wield the moderate foe hammer.

October will be a triumph; right when everyone starts to really pay attention, the Dems will come out of the trees. Lighting fires to take out Bush. All of those new registered voters are going to make a difference. Get ready!

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